The World Health Organization (WHO) uses the term “Disease X” to refer to an infection that has the potential to cause the next epidemic.
Disease X, which was first included in the list of priority pathogens by WHO in 2017, took its place on the Davos agenda. Studies on Disease X enabled the whole world to react rapidly to the Covid-19 pandemic.[1]
The goal is to encourage the development of technologies that can be rapidly adapted and deployed in response to future situations with epidemic or pandemic potential, including vaccines, drug treatments, and diagnostic tests.
What is Disease X?
Disease X is the name given to a disease caused by a currently unknown but serious microbial threat.
In 2017, the World Health Organization added Disease X to its shortlist of top priority pathogens for research, alongside known killers like Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Ebola.
Covid-19 was an example of disease X
Covid-19, caused by a novel coronavirus, was an example of Disease X when it launched the pandemic at the end of 2019. The large reservoir of viruses in nature is seen as the source of such diseases.
This is because viruses have the potential to spread and infect other species, including humans, causing an infection to which humans may not be immune.
Why is disease X still being studied?
One of WHO’s missions is to provide preliminary R&D for unknown diseases. The humanitarian crisis caused by the 2014-2016 Ebola epidemic in West Africa was a wake-up call.
Despite decades of research, there was no readily available product that could be used in time to save more than 11,000 lives. WHO then created an R&D plan to accelerate the development of a range of tools for “priority diseases”.
The current list of WHO’s R&D plan is as follows:
- Covid-19
- Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever
- Ebola virus disease and Marburg virus disease
- Lassa fever
- Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) and SARS
- Nipah and henipaviral diseases
- Rift Valley Fever
- Zika
- Disease X
What could be the next disease X?
We don’t know; that’s why it’s called disease X. Coronaviruses, a large group of viruses, have long been seen as the main contenders for creating a new pandemic, even before the covid-19 outbreak. This is because the new coronavirus is not the first dangerous pathogen from this group. In 2002, a different coronavirus began to spread in China. It caused a type of pneumonia called SARS, which killed about 1 in 10 of those it infected, before being stopped by strict infection control measures.
Another, even deadlier coronavirus called MERS occasionally emerges and causes a pneumonia that kills 1 in 3 of those infected. But recent research suggests that SARS and MERS will have more difficulty triggering a new epidemic because almost everyone in the world now has antibodies to the virus that causes covid-19, and these appear to provide partial protection against most other pathogens in the coronavirus family[3].
Disease X studies accelerated reaction against coronavirus
It took only 326 days from the publication of the genetic sequence of the SARS-CoV-2 virus to the approval of the first Covid vaccine.
We owe all of this to the Disease X studies conducted since 2017.
Now groups like the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, or CEPI, are promoting rapid-response vaccine platforms that could develop new vaccines within 100 days after a virus with pandemic potential emerges, under a $3.5 billion plan.
Other studies carried out against epidemic threats are as follows:
- Updating the International Health Regulations and developing a new global agreement to protect the world from future emergencies.
- A new fund approved by the World Bank for pandemic prevention, preparedness and response.
- A WHO Pandemic and Epidemic Intelligence Center in Berlin that aims to accelerate access to essential data and develop analytical tools and predictive models to assess potential threats.
- The Global Virome Project, which aims to discover zoonotic viral threats and stop future pandemics.
- A $5 billion US government initiative called the NextGen Project aims to develop next-generation vaccines and treatments for Covid-19.
- $262.5 million in funding for a U.S. national network for detecting and responding more effectively to public health emergencies.
- Establishing a global center for pandemic treatments.